The irrationality of Voting.

Voting is around the corner. You will now see celebrity and self proclaimed social-evangelist preaching through videos, posters, quotes asking you to vote.

Wish I was in Mumbai today to vote... every year I do. I implore all of you to... we are the future and make this country what it will be for our kids.-Priyanka Chopra

Please go out and vote. It is important for us, our city and our country. Your vote will make the difference.:) Anupam Kher

Idiot in Greek means one who didn't vote. Kunal Kohli

Some will go so far to say, if you don't vote, you should not point fingers on the state of affairs of the nation.

No Vote, No Complain. Happy Voting Day. Early morning at my booth .Purab Kohli

What celebrities politicians and media fanatics do over here is commit a logical mistake of assuming that just because you vote, you somehow become a responsible citizen and that if you don't vote, you have to keep your mouth shut for the next five years.

I do not vote (in the sense, I go to the ballot center, register my self and vote for none). 
I don't vote because my vote will not count. The resources I invest in researching, travelling and voting is quite greater than the actual benefits I get from voting.

There are quite few reasons why your vote won't be counted. Another blogger has pointed out the political and social reason as to why your vote is a waste. A excellent read over here.

I will focus on the rational part of voting and show that you should not vote if you are a smart person. Let us understand why does it happens.

Consider two candidates are up for election in your constituency. Lets name them C1 and C2.

Choose at-least the one!

The following can be the various outcomes of the elections:

 Okay. So we now know that your vote just counts in ONE CASE. But don't feel it is one in four case. The probability of the last case happening is extremely rare. In fact the probability of last case happening is less than the probability of your dying by an accident while travelling to vote. In other words, you rather die than vote.

Now let us consider that whole of Mumbai reads this blog and somehow becomes smart. All of the voters decide not to vote. Now what?

In this case, even if one person goes and votes, bingo! His candidate wins the election. So now individual vote matters. right?

Well again, the above case of everybody becoming smart and rational during voting time is empirically low. There would be some of the other people who will go to vote. As the video below explains, the relatives and friends of the candidates would definitely vote (or they get kicked). In India, we have a concept of hired voters, whom you give 100 Rs or 2 Dollars and they will cast their votes for whichever candidate you propose. Of course you have to provide travelling allowance extra. What I mean by this is, some people would definitely go for a vote. 

In other words, if you are a smart and rational human being, you should not vote.